Leading & Governing at the Edge of Uncertainty with Jose Santos - 2026 Cosmic Conference LinkedIn Live Session
- Cosmic Centaurs
- Apr 16
- 7 min read
About the Session
In this closing session of the Cosmic Conference, José Santos challenges one of the most deeply held assumptions in management: that the future can be predicted by doing away with uncertainty. Instead, he reframes leadership as the ability to operate within true uncertainty by designing the conditions that allow organizations to act despite not knowing. The conversation moves from redefining uncertainty, to exposing the limits of traditional models, and ultimately to equipping boards and managers with practical ways to act responsibly in an unknowable world.
Key Takeaways
Risk vs Uncertainty: A Foundational Distinction
The conversation begins with a distinction that seems simple, but fundamentally reshapes how we think.
In most organizational contexts, uncertainty is (mis)treated as risk: something that can be measured, modeled, and managed. But as José Santos highlights, this is a category error.
Drawing on Frank Knight’s work, the difference is critical:
Risk assumes we know the possible outcomes and can assign probabilities
True uncertainty means we don’t even know what the possible outcomes are and therefor cannot assign probabilities.
This distinction matters because most of our tools e.g. forecasting models, scenario planning, risk frameworks, are built for a world of risk, not a world of uncertainty.
The consequence is dangerous: organizations believe they are managing reality, when in fact they are managing a simplified version of it. This creates the illusion of control.
The shift, then, is about accepting that uncertainty is not an exception, it is the baseline condition leaders must operate within.
How Different Cultures Perceive Uncertainty
An important nuance is that uncertainty is not experienced in the same way everywhere. Drawing on Hofstede’s work on national culture, Santos points to the idea of uncertainty avoidance: the extent to which a culture feels uncomfortable with ambiguity and seeks to reduce it through order, predictability, structure, or control. Some cultures are far more at ease with uncertainty, while others experience it as deeply destabilizing. He gives the example of Portuguese culture as one that scores relatively high on uncertainty avoidance.
This matters because uncertainty is not only a strategic condition, it is also an emotional experience. Uncertainty produces anxiety. And when leaders do not recognize this, they often mistake anxiety for poor judgment, resistance, or lack of capability. Santos suggests that one sign we may be under conditions of true uncertainty is precisely this sense of anguish or disorientation.
For leadership, the implication is significant. Leading through uncertainty cannot be universal or purely technical. It requires sensitivity to:
how quickly they seek certainty,
and how much reassurance, structure, or containment they may need.
This is also why serenity matters so much in leadership. In moments of crisis, people do not only look to leaders for direction; they look to them for emotional steadiness.
The Limits of Our Models: Why We Assume Uncertainty Away
Management theories, such as rationalism and reductionism, are built on assumptions
that make the world more predictable than it really is. Rational actors. Stable environments.
Known variables. These assumptions are not wrong, but they are incomplete.
These models work in contained, stable environments. They begin to fail in complex, evolving systems.
This creates a deeper problem: Leaders are trained to believe that good decisions come
from analysis and prediction. But in true uncertainty, neither is sufficient.
and increase control. Instead of recognizing that the problem is not the execution,
Leaders must remain aware of what models cannot capture.
Governance & Community: Creating the Space to Act
If the future cannot be predicted, then what is the role of leadership?
Santos reframes this through a more fundamental question: Why do organizations exist at all?
His answer is simple: Organizations exist because humans cannot face uncertainty alone.
They are structures that absorb uncertainty, distribute it, and make it psychologically
and operationally manageable. This reframes leadership itself.
Leadership is not just about direction or decision-making. It is about containing uncertainty so that others can act.
From here, a critical distinction emerges:
Governance (Boards) creates the space for action
Management (Executives) acts within that space
The role of Governance is to define the boundaries within which the path can be discovered.
Tools for Directors: Designing the Boundaries
Santos highlights four ways in which boards can do this:
1. Precautionary Principle (Project Level)
At its core, the precautionary principle introduces a different starting point for decision-making: Not “What could we gain?” but “What could we lose that we cannot recover from?”
This principle emerged originally in German environmental policy (Vorsorgeprinzip), where decisions could create irreversible damage, but its relevance to organizations operating under uncertainty is profound.
This shifts the decision filter: From optimizing expected returns → To screening out projects with possible catastrophic loss or impact.
What this looks like in practice
Avoiding bets that could:
Destroy trust with key stakeholders
Create regulatory or reputational damage that cannot be undone
Lock the organization into irreversible commitments
Catastrophically impact the planet
2. Stop-Loss Rules (Project Level)
If the precautionary principle defines what should never be started, stop-loss rules define what must not be continued. It creates predefined conditions under which a project is automatically stopped and is designed to counter escalation of commitment.
These must go beyond financial metrics and include:
Financial thresholds (budget, losses)
Managerial attention (disproportionate time/energy)
Relational impact (stakeholder trust)
Systemic or ecological consequences
Once triggered, these rules are non-negotiable, removing bias and politics from decision-making.
3. Constitutional “Via Negativa” (Firm Level)
In uncertainty, strategy cannot fully define what to do. But it can define what must never be done.
This is the essence of via negativa: a concept rooted in philosophy and later popularized by Nassim Taleb in decision-making contexts: clarity through subtraction, not addition.
Instead of asking: “What opportunities should we pursue?” The organization defines: “What will we refuse, regardless of opportunity?”
This creates:
Identity clarity: Knowing what you are not anchors what you are
Decision speed: Entire categories of decisions are eliminated upfront
Protection against opportunism: Prevents short-term gains from eroding long-term coherence
Examples of what this can sound like include “We do not enter businesses we cannot operate independently”, “We do not compromise on data integrity, even under pressure”...
4. Principia (Firm Level)
A concept rooted in Greek philosophy and popularized by Ray Dalio. Principia are a small set of non-negotiable guiding principles derived from the organization’s core identity and early successes.
These principles:
Remain stable even when the environment changes
Guide decisions when prediction is impossible
Anchor the organization across uncertain futures
Principia are operating principles that guide action when the future cannot be predicted.
What this means for Boards
These tools form a coherent system for operating under uncertainty by:
Preventing irreversible downside
Defining when to stop
Clarifying what the organization will not do
Anchoring decisions in enduring principles
In doing so, they create a bounded space in which action becomes possible.
6. Tools for Managers: Acting Without Knowing
Managers face a different challenge: How do you act when you don’t know what will happen?
The answer is not to wait for clarity, but to build through action.
1. Effectuation (Start from Means, Not Predictions)
A logic of entrepreneurial thinking developed by Dr. Saras Sarasvathy, emphasizing taking action with available resources (aka Bricolage), rather than predicting the future.
Core principles of effectuation:
Bird-in-Hand: Start with your means - who you are, what you know, whom you know
Affordable Loss: Decide based on what you can afford to lose, not expected returns
Crazy Quilt: Build partnerships early (stakeholders co-create the opportunity)
Lemonade Principle: Leverage surprises instead of avoiding them
Pilot-in-the-Plane: Focus on what you can control(the future is shaped by action, not predicted)
2. Harnessing Serendipity (Learning from the Unexpected)
Treat surprises as inputs, not disruptions
Strategy is is discovered through action
This requires: Attention to anomalies, willingness to pivot, and openness to emergent opportunities.
3. Anti-fragility (Improving Through Volatility)
A concept coined by Nassim Talib, describes the property of systems that thrive, grow, or improve when exposed to volatility and disorder.
Go beyond resilience (withstanding shocks)
Design systems that benefit from disorder
This means:
Reducing fragility
Allowing controlled exposure to stress
Learning continuously from disruption
4. Simple Rules (Clarity in Complexity)
Based on the book “How to Thrive in a Complex World” by Donald Sull and Kathleen Eisenhardt. Replace complex plans with a small set of guiding rules.
The 6 Type sof Simple Rules:
Boundary Rules: Define what to pursue and what to avoid → Focus attention and resources
Prioritization Rules: Rank opportunities → Ensure effort goes to what matters most
Stopping Rules: Define when to exit → Prevent sunk-cost fallacy
How-To Rules: Provide guidance on execution → Enable consistent performance
Coordination Rules: Define how teams work together → Enable alignment without micromanagement
Timing Rules: Define when to act → Critical in fast-changing environments
Simple rules create speed, alignment, and adaptability in uncertain environments.
What this means for Managers
Managers do not eliminate uncertainty. They move through it by:
Acting with available means
Learning through doing
Adapting continuously
Using simple structures to guide complex decisions
Lightning Round
What keeps you grounded?
Creating moments for reflection
Staying connected to a few trusted people who provide honest, direct feedback
Stepping away from noise and constant connectivity
What helps you be limitless?
Setting a clear intention (e.g., making risk-taking deliberate)
Holding yourself accountable to that intention
Noticing when you fall back into comfort and pushing beyond it
What is one leadership quality from the Arab world others can learn from?
“The more in a hurry you are, the more you need to walk slowly,” as shared by His Excellency Mohammad Al Gergawi
A leadership approach grounded in calm, deliberation, and composure under pressure
What are the top things leaders should do right now?
Build self-awareness: Invest in understanding how you think, react, and show up
Engage with people as humans, not just roles: Connect personally with teams, clients, and stakeholders and understand what they are going through, not just what needs to be done
About Cosmic Centaurs
Cosmic Centaurs is an organizational and leadership development consultancy helping leaders and leadership teams make better decisions and drive sustainable change.
The Cosmic Conference is our annual, open platform for learning, reflection, and connection, bringing together leaders, thinkers, and practitioners to explore the questions that matter most to leadership today.
You can listen to this session as a podcast here.
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